The first half of 2019 is over and the Aspen Snowmass residential real estate market seems headed for a strong year. So far this year, the total sales volume of residential properties in the Aspen to Snowmass market stands just shy of $700 million at $691 million, about 8.3 percent ahead of the mid-year 2018 pace.  If this level of sales volume keeps up for the remainder of 2019, the total sales volume will reach almost $1.4 billion making it one of the best three years for real estate sales in the past decade. In terms of number of transactions, so far in 2019 there have been 217 total transactions which is about the same as in 2018 when there were 215 transactions by mid-year. If this trend continues, we should end the year with around 450 total residential transactions which is in line with the pace of the last two years.

The total inventory of residential properties in the Aspen Snowmass market has also declined about 12 percent from about 580 listings at the beginning of the year to about 510 at the end of June. Also, the ratio of total listings to listings under contract stands at 8 percent. This ratio has trended upward over the past ten years from a low of 2 percent at the depths of the last recession in 2009 to 2010 with the average being in the 5 to 7 percent range. In addition, the 90 day moving average of total sales volume has been trending upward in the past three months and has crossed above the 270 day moving average in the past month. The combination of these three factors would indicate continued upward pressure on average prices across the market for the foreseeable future.    

Although the overall Aspen Snowmass market seems healthy, different segments of the market are stronger than others. Properties priced under $5 million are selling briskly. Of the total sales in the past 12 months, 84 percent were properties priced under $5 million. At the current sales pace, there is only a 10-month supply of properties to meet the current demand. As you move up the price scale, the story changes. In the $5 million to $10 million range, the market is somewhat slower. Only 11% of the properties that sold in the past 12 months were in this price range. Currently, there is a 30-month supply of homes in the $5 million to $10 million range. Above $10 million, the market is a bit bleaker. Over the past 12-months, only 5 percent of all the sales were properties priced over $10.0 million. With 116 properties currently listed for sale over $10.0, there is a 5-year supply with the current demand. 

Although the overall market is solid, it’s a completely different story depending upon what price point you are buying or selling into. If you’re a buying in the $10 million plus range, you have a lot of options. If you’re a seller, it’s a tough market to sell into. At the other extreme, if your property is price properly in the under $5 million range, you can expect it to sell quickly. In the middle $5 to $10 million range, the market is more balanced between buyers and sellers with buyers having over 125 listings to choose from. As a result, expect a lot of price reductions in the upper value end of the market, and sellers holding firm in the lower end of the value range. 

Looking at the bigger picture, the economy continues to chug along growing at about 3.0 percent annual rate for the first half of the year. The U.S. stock markets are also hitting all-time highs. Gains in the stock market typically translate into a strong real estate market in resort areas like Aspen and Snowmass. Both economic growth and stock market gains are good indicators for how the local real estate market will perform in the near future. With the stock markets and economy continuing to grow at healthy paces, the Aspen Snowmass real estate market should also see a strong second half for 2019.  

Lori Small is a luxury real estate broker associate with Coldwell Banker Mason Morse; and William Small, CCIM is the Founder and CEO of Zenith Realty Advisors, LLC, a commercial-investment real estate advisory and investment firm.

Lori can be reached at Lori@LoriSmall.com and William can be reached at William.Small@ZenithInvestment.com